Patient Journeys and Life Course Outcomes: An Investment Approach Framework

Full title: 'Patient Journeys and Life Course Outcomes: An Investment Approach Framework for Modelling Patient Interactions with the Health and Aged Care Sectors'
The demographic profile of the Australian population is constantly shifting due to changing population composition, distribution and growth. These shifts raise critical challenges for the future viability of the health and aged care sectors. This study seeks to leverage high-quality, de-identified, granular linked data to identify the factors influencing patient life course outcomes in the Australian health and aged care context and subsequently quantify their effect. This analysis will be used to better understand patient pathways ensuring the best possible health and wellbeing outcomes for Australians.
The key factors placing pressure on the health and aged care sectors can be evaluated by leveraging the linked data contained in both the National Integrated Health Services Information (NIHSI) and Multi Agency Data Integration Project (MADIP) analysis assets. By modelling the patient journey from birth to death, this study seeks to unpack interactions across the health, education, employment, aged care, disability and support sectors using patient-level data.
To understand these factors, this study will build a virtual population representative of the Australian population that will be cast into a dynamic microsimulation model. This model will specify unique age and cohort transition probabilities that determine the future likelihood of patient outcomes. For example, these probabilities could be used to determine the likelihood that an individual in an age and gender category is diagnosed with lung cancer. A decision tree structure will be established for each age and gender cohort, following a Monte Carlo estimation process (or similar) to determine the baseline projection for the next 10 years. Model outputs will be measured by patient outcomes including health status, employment status, income status and so on. These outputs will also address cost implications to the Federal and State Governments and estimates of aggregate wellbeing costs, measured in Disability Adjusted Life Years.
This study represents the first known attempt by Government to quantify patient pathways en masse and embodies a unique opportunity to better understand the drivers of health and aged care service utilisation. Beyond this, there is also the possibility to run scenarios that evaluate new policies and budget allocations to improve patient outcomes.
 
Find the Q&A here: Q&A on 'Understanding Health and Aged Care'